← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 39% | 36% | 2.51 | fair |
| Lugo win | 32% | 33% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.31 | 1589.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.28 | 3.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 46.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.83 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |