← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 40% | 46% | 2.46 | value: +12% |
| Las Palmas win | 31% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 707.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1467.64 | 1541.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.34 | -4.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 47.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.75 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |