← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 43% | 34% | 2.27 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 30% | 40% | 3.23 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1438.00 | 507.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1403.21 | 1565.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.78 | 23.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| league points | 33.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.89 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |