← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 56% | 42% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.63 | value: +16% |
| Lugo win | 17% | 26% | 5.78 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 91.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1429.87 | 1452.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.99 | -13.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 39.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |