← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
| Zaragoza win | 25% | 25% | 3.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1490.77 | 1496.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.98 | -3.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 52.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.49 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |