← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirandes win | 46% | 39% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.23 | value: +10% |
| Recreativo win | 24% | 27% | 4.11 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mirandes | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1439.31 | 1369.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.73 | -25.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| league points | 44.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.25 | -1.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |