← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 69% | 59% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 28% | 4.90 | value: +39% |
| Llagostera win | 11% | 13% | 9.06 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Llagostera |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 152.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1625.98 | 1510.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.13 | 18.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 71.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.40 |
| state index | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |