← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 38% | 31% | 2.59 | fair |
| Llagostera win | 32% | 34% | 3.09 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.18 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Llagostera | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1510.56 | 1585.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.43 | -10.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 48.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.82 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |