← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 49% | 37% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 22% | 34% | 4.39 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 296.00 | 329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1534.46 | 1546.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.95 | -41.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| league points | 59.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.71 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |