← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 38% | 29% | 2.58 | fair |
| Barcelona B win | 35% | 45% | 2.82 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barcelona B | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1424.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1400.36 | 1501.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.39 | 19.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 30.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.53 |
| state index | -1.27 | 0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |