← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 56% | 36% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 36% | 3.57 | value: +30% |
| Llagostera win | 17% | 28% | 5.71 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Llagostera |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 77.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1438.09 | 1510.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.39 | 28.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 38.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |