← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 58% | 67% | 1.68 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.85 | fair |
| Zaragoza win | 17% | 12% | 5.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 139.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1607.72 | 1498.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.87 | 11.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 65.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.48 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |