← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 40% | 39% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
| Lugo win | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Racing Club de Santander | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 778.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1410.09 | 1463.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.97 | 8.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 32.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |