← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 47% | 63% | 2.07 | value: +31% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.37 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 24% | 13% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.96 | 1409.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.15 | -24.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 49.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.07 | -1.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |