← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 58% | 47% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.82 | fair |
| Girona win | 17% | 26% | 5.86 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 282.00 | 480.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1533.04 | 1550.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.35 | -12.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 56.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.84 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |