← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 39% | 37% | 2.51 | fair |
| Sp Gijon win | 32% | 36% | 3.05 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 161.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.05 | 1580.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.82 | -9.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 48.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.81 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |