← Segunda División 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 45% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| Tenerife win | 25% | 22% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1044.00 | 69.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1485.28 | 1445.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.13 | 18.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |