← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Jun 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 84% | 51% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 25% | 8.64 | value: +116% |
| Tenerife win | 5% | 24% | 18.48 | value: +342% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sp Gijon | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1515.83 | 1446.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.90 | -51.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 61.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.15 | -1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |