← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Jun 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 61% | 30% | 1.50 | fair |
| Lugo win | 23% | 47% | 4.00 | value: +89% ⚠ |
| Mirandes win | 17% | 23% | 5.50 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1433.00 | 1422.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.42 | -39.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| league points | 51.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.71 | -1.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |