← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Jun 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaen win | 39% | 44% | 2.48 | value: +10% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 32% | 27% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Jaen | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 736.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1424.68 | 1442.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.81 | 17.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 48.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |