← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Jun 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona B win | 41% | 37% | 2.38 | fair |
| Hercules win | 34% | 38% | 2.85 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hercules | Barcelona B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1421.74 | 1538.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.62 | -11.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.54 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |