← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 35% | 43% | 2.76 | value: +19% |
| Girona win | 34% | 30% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1483.22 | 1465.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.35 | 12.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 51.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |