← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirandes win | 52% | 39% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.63 | value: +7% |
| Hercules win | 21% | 31% | 4.70 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mirandes | Hercules |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1435.20 | 1409.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.64 | -35.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 50.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.89 | -1.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |