← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 51% | 59% | 1.90 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
| Lugo win | 18% | 13% | 5.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 729.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1523.41 | 1439.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.22 | -28.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 67.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.25 | -1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |