← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaen win | 44% | 42% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.99 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 24% | 27% | 4.09 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Jaen | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1440.53 | 1472.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.11 | 9.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |