← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Lugo win | 26% | 25% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hercules | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1410.23 | 1438.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.31 | -14.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 41.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.28 |
| state index | -1.44 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |