← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid B win | 40% | 50% | 2.41 | value: +21% |
| Las Palmas win | 30% | 26% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid B | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1480.51 | 1513.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.12 | -1.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.58 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |