← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 34% | 27% | 2.86 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 34% | 43% | 2.86 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1484.66 | 1465.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.33 | -11.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| league points | 48.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.24 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.87 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |