← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 38% | 45% | 2.57 | value: +15% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 31% | 28% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 716.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1450.67 | 1421.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.86 | 27.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 50.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |