← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 51% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | value: +3% |
| Mirandes win | 21% | 22% | 4.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Mirandes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1498.92 | 1459.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.37 | 1.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 55.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |