← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaen win | 47% | 42% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.43 | value: +3% |
| Recreativo win | 25% | 28% | 3.94 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Jaen | Recreativo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1425.20 | 1448.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.77 | -18.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |