← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 39% | 47% | 2.50 | value: +18% |
| Zaragoza win | 31% | 26% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cordoba | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1045.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1485.96 | 1460.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.03 | -6.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 53.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |