← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 40% | 50% | 2.46 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.21 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 30% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 343.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1467.49 | 1442.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.66 | -65.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.95 | -1.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |