← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 48% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
| Tenerife win | 24% | 28% | 4.04 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1506.12 | 1485.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.45 | 5.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 57.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |