← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 50% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 21% | 16% | 4.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 708.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1516.68 | 1482.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.45 | 25.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 62.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.27 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |