← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 53% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
| Girona win | 20% | 25% | 4.85 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 672.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1498.00 | 1466.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.16 | 41.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 54.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |