← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo win | 38% | 43% | 2.55 | value: +10% |
| Numancia win | 32% | 28% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1450.16 | 1466.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.62 | -38.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 52.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.25 |
| state index | -0.56 | -1.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |