← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid B win | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.57 | fair |
| Jaen win | 21% | 21% | 4.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid B | Jaen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.12 | 1421.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.40 | -21.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 41.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |