← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 36% | 41% | 2.71 | value: +11% |
| Lugo win | 33% | 26% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1456.42 | 1577.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.56 | 7.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 49.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.75 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |