← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 38% | 46% | 2.54 | value: +17% |
| Murcia win | 32% | 26% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hercules | Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1436.36 | 1488.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.40 | 24.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 41.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |