← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 42% | 44% | 2.34 | value: +4% |
| Real Madrid B win | 30% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Real Madrid B |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 330.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1467.57 | 1480.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.26 | -40.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 44.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |