← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 43% | 50% | 2.27 | value: +15% |
| Zaragoza win | 29% | 25% | 3.41 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1452.41 | 1485.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.77 | 8.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 37.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.34 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |