← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 56% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Lugo win | 17% | 19% | 5.87 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sp Gijon | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1497.74 | 1467.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.53 | 17.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 50.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.40 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |