← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
| Jaen win | 23% | 24% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Jaen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 304.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1478.77 | 1417.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.83 | -11.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 44.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |