← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 53% | 48% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
| Numancia win | 20% | 24% | 4.91 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tenerife | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 658.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1501.53 | 1475.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.40 | -41.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |