← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo win | 46% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Recreativo | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1467.35 | 1395.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.20 | -31.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 51.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.03 |
| state index | -0.36 | -1.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |