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Real Madrid B 0–1 Eibar

← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Real Madrid B win44%35%2.22fair
Draw29%29%3.33fair
Eibar win27%36%3.63value: +31%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Madrid BEibar
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—687.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1492.501492.48
elo momentum (last 5)-17.22-8.04
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
league points40.0055.00
league rank20.002.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win4.003.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg1.181.62
state index-0.46-0.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60