← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 38% | 40% | 2.54 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 31% | 29% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1452.61 | 1462.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.89 | 2.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 46.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |