← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercules win | 50% | 44% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
| Cordoba win | 21% | 28% | 4.53 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hercules | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1023.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1456.54 | 1462.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.10 | 16.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 41.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |