← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murcia win | 49% | 46% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Lugo win | 21% | 25% | 4.69 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Murcia | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1476.89 | 1464.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.36 | 15.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| league points | 47.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |